The vaccine rollout, though slower than hoped, is gaining steam. Coronavirus cases are falling in the United States. The growing optimism stems from the confluence of several factors. “Whether it’s a boom or not, I do think it’s a V-shaped recovery,” he added, referring to a steep drop followed by a sharp rebound. “We’re extremely likely to get a very high growth rate,” said Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist. Some expect an even stronger bounce: Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that the economy will grow 6.8 percent this year and that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1 percent by December, a level that took eight years to achieve after the last recession. output will increase 4.5 percent this year, which would make it the best year since 1999. Measures of business investment have picked up, a sign of confidence from corporate leaders.Įconomists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this month predicted that U.S. New unemployment claims have declined from early January, though they remain high. There are hints that the economy has turned a corner: Retail sales jumped last month as the latest round of government aid began showing up in consumers’ bank accounts. But in recent weeks, economists have begun to talk of something stronger: a supercharged rebound that brings down unemployment, drives up wages and may foster years of stronger growth.
But on Wall Street and in Washington, attention is shifting to an intriguing if indistinct prospect: a post-Covid boom.įorecasters have always expected the pandemic to be followed by a period of strong growth as businesses reopen and Americans resume their normal activities. economy remains mired in a pandemic winter of shuttered storefronts, high unemployment and sluggish job growth.
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